Dad Shows' 2025 Emmy Predictions

The most accurate predictions on the entire internet

I was waiting for the whole season of The Last of Us to drop before I made my Emmy predictions, and now I have seen enough. Just before the submission window closes on Saturday, here are my predictions for nominees and winners in series and acting categories at the 2025 Emmy Awards.

I don’t know if you, my cherished Dad Show reader, are interested in Emmys predictions, especially when they’re not much different from the predictions you’ll find on any other website. There are only so many shows that are viable contenders, so realistic predictions will all look similar. But I write about TV, so I feel compelled to do it, the way a trader is compelled to seek alpha or a drummer is compelled to tap on things. If it’s boring to you, please stick around for your regularly scheduled programming next week (Netflix’s new Scott Frank show Dept. Q).

Overall I think this the most competitive Emmys field in years, which is exciting. There are three series that could conceivably win Outstanding Drama Series (The Last of Us, The Pitt, and Severance). The last time the drama race was this open was when The Handmaid’s Tale beat The Crown and This Is Us. Since then, it’s either been Game of Thrones or Succession or weak fields that The Crown Season 4 and Shogun dominated. It’s going to be a fun year. The only open race I’m truly rooting for someone in is Zoe Kravitz to win Guest Actress in a Comedy for playing herself on a brain-melting amount of mushrooms on The Studio.

Comedy Series: Hacks

I listened to Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg on IndieWire’s great Filmmaker Toolkit podcast, which took place as part of their media blitz for The Studio. They’re getting their story of The Studio’s technical achievement out there, and I think it’s a convincing one for why The Studio should win. Naysayers think The Studio is too inside baseball to win, but everyone who watches The Studio loves it, whether they’re in the industry or not. If it wins, I won’t be surprised. That being said, I don’t think it’s going to pull it off. People love and support Hacks — maybe even more than they did last year, when it won. It’s going to be a close race, but I think The Studio ultimately won’t quite be strong enough to unseat Hacks this time.

Nominees:
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
The Four Seasons
Hacks
Nobody Wants This
Only Murders in the Building
Shrinking
The Studio

Comedy Actor: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Martin Short is considered the frontrunner because he already won the SAG for his performance on Only Murders in the Building Season 4, but SAG wins are not a perfectly predictive precursor and I think Only Murders has already hit its Emmy ceiling. It will continue to be nominated but not win. And I think the new season of The Bear that comes out during the voting window will remind people that even if they didn’t love Season 3 as a whole, they still love Jeremy Allen White’s performance, especially if Season 4 is better.

Nominees:
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Ted Danson, A Man on the Inside
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Seth Rogen, The Studio

Comedy Actress: Jean Smart, Hacks

Smart has no meaningful competition. She’s going 4-for-4.

Nominees:
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Tina Fey, The Four Seasons
Jean Smart, Hacks
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

Comedy Supporting Actor: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

Same as with Jeremy Allen White, Desi’s performance is so consistently great that he’ll win even if the season he’s nominated for isn’t good.

Nominees:
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Ike Barinholtz, The Studio

Comedy Supporting Actress: Hannah Einbinder, Hacks

The love for Hacks is so strong that Einbinder will finally break through in Season 4.

Nominees:
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Katherine Hahn, The Studio
Catherine O’Hara, The Studio

Drama Series: The Pitt

There’s unanimous passion for this show in a way that isn’t quite there for Severance, The Last of Us, or The White Lotus. And I think voters will relish the idea of giving the series award to a show that feels like a traditional TV show for the first time since 24 in 2006 (which coincidentally had the same “every episode is an hour” structure). It’s a populist choice and a feel-good choice that’s also an excellent show. I’m not so confident in its winning that I’d bet more than a few dollars on it, though. I don’t know that the opinion that The Last of Us Season 2 is worse than the first will escape online containment and catch on at the Emmys, and Severance is very popular, very good, and very visible, even if it’s stranger than the kind of thing that usually wins. Still, though, I’d throw $5 into The Pitt.

Nominees:
Andor
The Diplomat
The Last of Us
The Pitt
Severance
Slow Horses
Squid Game
The White Lotus

Drama Actor: Noah Wyle, The Pitt

It would be a career achievement award for Wyle, who was nominated five times for ER, while also recognizing how superb he is on The Pitt.

Nominees:
Diego Luna, Andor
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Adam Scott, Severance
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Drama Actress: Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us

This is the hardest category to predict. Matlock’s Kathy Bates is considered the favorite in odds rankings right now, but she’s not going to win, because Emmy voters don’t watch CBS. Bella Ramsey’s performance on The Last of Us is pretty bad, but I think they’re likely to win sort of by default. Britt Lower could win if Severance also wins drama series, but I just have a feeling that’s not going to happen, whereas Ramsey could win even if The Last of Us doesn’t take series. If Emmy voters are choosing between flawed second seasons of genre shows, they’re going to go with the more accessible one, and that’s TLOU. That being said, I do have a theory that Keri Russell could come out of nowhere and win for The Diplomat. The Diplomat isn’t very buzzy, but it’s popular because of the Netflix effect, and Russell is great on it even if the show itself is only okay. She also notoriously didn’t win for The Americans, so this could be a make-up. This is kind of a weak category this year, and in the absence of strong competition, Russell could surprise. I don’t actually think she will, though. I think Ramsey will win because someone has to.

Nominees:
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Kathy Bates, Matlock
Britt Lower, Severance
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets

Drama Supporting Actor: Walton Goggins, The White Lotus

Goggins has all the momentum. And even though The White Lotus stunk this season and his character made no sense, he did an admirable job selling it.

Nominees:
Trammell Tillman, Severance
John Turturro, Severance
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
Patrick Schwarzenegger, The White Lotus

Drama Supporting Actress: Carrie Coon, The White Lotus

Of the White Lotus nominees I’m predicting in this category — Carrie Coon, Aimee Lou Wood, Leslie Bibb, and Parker Posey— Coon has the best performance. There’s a chance all the White Lotus ladies could cancel each other out and Isabela Merced takes it, but I don’t think that will actually happen.

Nominees:
Isabella Merced, The Last of Us
Taylor Dearden, The Pitt
Patricia Arquette, Severance
Leslie Bibb, The White Lotus
Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus

Limited Series: Adolescence

It’s fun that this race seemed uncompetitive, with The Penguin set to sweep, until Adolescence showed up and made it interesting. I think Adolescence is going to be this year’s dominant show that wins most of its categories.

Nominees:
Adolescence
Dying for Sex
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
The Penguin
Say Nothing

Limited Series Actor: Colin Farrell, The Penguin

As much as Adolescence has the limited series race sewn up, I think there’s no chance that Farrell doesn’t win the actor race. Adolescence is a true ensemble show, and it’s going to be harder for Stephen Graham to break out as lead for what’s really a supporting performance against Farrell’s transformative star turn.

Nominees:
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief
Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent

Limited Series Actress: Cristin Milioti, The Penguin

Adolescence is going to win almost everything except the lead acting categories. Milioti’s only real competition is Michelle Williams, and as much as Emmy voters love her, I just don’t think Dying for Sex broke through enough for her to win.

Nominees:
Kaitlyn Dever, Apple Cider Vinegar
Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy
Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer
Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin

Limited Series Supporting Actor: Owen Cooper, Adolescence

This kid deserves to win for his astounding performance, and he’s going to.

Nominees:
Owen Cooper, Adolescence
Ashley Walters, Adolescence
Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex
Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Rhenzy Feliz, The Penguin

Limited Series Supporting Actress: Erin Doherty, Adolescence

Jenny Slate is great on Dying for Sex, but Doherty is walking away with this one.

Erin Doherty, Adolescence
Christine Tremarco, Adolescence
Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex
Chloe Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin