The Dad Shows Guide to the 2024 Emmys
Who should win, who will win, and who would win if the Emmys were about Dad Shows
The Emmy nominations were announced yesterday. Everybody got their takes out of the way then except me; I was holding them for today because I like to be late to the party.
Here they are: The Bear belongs in the comedy category and anyone who suggests otherwise is being dense; Emma Stone was not snubbed for The Curse, because The Curse was too weird and artistic to be a viable Emmys contender; and they should cut the nominees back to five per category again, because there aren’t enough good shows to fill all these slots.
Now that the immediate reactions are out of the way, it’s time to go in-depth. Welcome to the Dad Shows Guide to the Emmys, where I give my predictions and expert analysis on the nominations using my own highly scientific, very serious criteria.
I’m evaluating the Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series series, lead actor, and lead actress categories — plus Outstanding Guest Actor, the Emmys’ most Dad Shows category — based on three categories: who I would pick if I were giving out the award, who I objectively think will win, and who would win if the Emmys were dedicated to recognizing Dad Shows.
When we’re closer to the ceremony in September, I’ll actually do that — a Dad Shows Awards, specifically rewarding outstanding achievement in Dad Shows, regardless of whether they were nominated for Emmys — but for now, I’m going to work with the actual nominees, which are wack and bullshit.
Best Drama Series
The Crown (Netflix)
Fallout (Prime Video)
The Gilded Age (HBO)
The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Shōgun (FX)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
3 Body Problem (Netflix)
My pick: Shōgun. I also really liked Mr. & Mrs. Smith, but I gotta give it to Shōgun for its scale and complexity.
Actual pick: Shōgun. Moving to Drama Series was really smart for Shōgun, because in this weak field it stands head and shoulders above the rest. It’s a show that everyone watched and is actually good, which is what Outstanding Drama Series is all about.
Dad Show pick: Slow Horses. Apple TV+’s British spy thriller is the only 100% pure unambiguous Dad Show in any of the series categories.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age)
Maya Erskine (Mr. and Mrs. Smith)
Anna Sawai (Shōgun)
Imelda Staunton (The Crown)
Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)
My pick: Anna Sawai. She had to learn how to walk without lifting her feet off the ground. That’s commitment.
Actual pick: Anna Sawai. And she deserves it.
Dad Show pick: Anna Sawai. Remember when her husband made her tea and was like “I know I haven’t been the best husband, but we should kill ourselves together” and she was like “I want to die more than anything else in the world, but I would rather live a thousand years than die with you. Thanks for the tea, though.”
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Idris Elba (Hijack)
Donald Glover (Mr. & Mrs. Smith)
Walton Goggins (Fallout)
Gary Oldman (Slow Horses)
Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun)
Dominic West (The Crown)
My pick: Donglover. This is sort of a blanket award for writing and directing Mr. & Mrs. Smith as well as for his very good performance — and also for dressing very stylishly on the show and in real life and also for making Atlanta.
Actual pick: Hiroyuki Sanada. Everyone respects Toranaga-sama too much to not give him this award.
Dad Show pick: Idris Elba. If you were on a plane that got hijacked, you would want Idris Elba to take charge of the situation.
Best Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/Max)
Hacks (HBO/Max)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Palm Royale (Apple TV+)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
My pick: Reservation Dogs. I didn’t watch Season 3, but the first two seasons were excellent, and I don’t think the rest of these shows are that good.
Actual pick: The Bear. Everyone watched The Bear Season 2, and everyone thought it was the greatest thing they’ve ever seen in their entire life. (I have the correct opinions, though, which are that the first half of the season stunk, the second half was alright, and Richie’s “Forks” episode was overrated. I’m over standalone episodes in general.)
Dad Show pick: Curb Your Enthusiasm. It’s a lifetime achievement award for Dad Comedy icon Larry David.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)
Maya Rudolph (Loot)
Jean Smart (Hacks)
Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale)
My pick: Selena Gomez. Her deadpan thing is so fun on Only Murders.
Actual pick: Jean Smart. Ayo’s performance is too supporting and the allure of a Jean Smart three-peat is too alluring for Emmy voters to pass up.
Dad Show pick: Selena Gomez. She’s an attractive young woman voluntarily hanging out with two goofy old boomers because she thinks they’re funny. What a dream for dads of a certain age.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows)
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
D'Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs)
My pick: Jeremy Allen White. As lukewarm as I am on The Bear overall, JAW’s performance is undeniably excellent.
Actual pick: Jeremy Allen White. Did you ever see what he would look like if he was Jeremy Allen Black or Jeremy Allen Chinese?
Dad Show pick: Larry David. All dads relate to Larry David. Most moms relate to Larry David. Daughters relate to Larry David more than sons. That might be counterintuitive, but it’s the truth.
Best Limited or Anthology Series
Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)
Ripley (Netflix)
True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
My pick: Ripley. Arguably the only A+ show released during the eligibility period. (Arguable because it might not quite be A+. Not arguable that anything else is better.)
Actual pick: Baby Reindeer. But it’s more about the out-of-nowhere sensation than the level of quality of the show. If the Baby Reindeer phenomenon hadn’t happened, Fargo would win.
Dad Show pick: True Detective: Night Country. Grim detectives in Alaska investigating a murder that forces them to confront who they are as people. What do you call something like that?
Best Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country)
Brie Larson (Lessons in Chemistry)
Juno Temple (Fargo)
Sofía Vergara (Griselda)
Naomi Watts (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans)
My pick: Jodie Foster. I am forever a member of Jodie Foster’s Army.
Actual pick: Juno Temple. Terrific accent work.
Dad Show pick: Sofia Vergara. While Jodie Foster’s tortured detective is also a Dad Shows protagonist, I gotta give a shoutout to Sofia Vergara as drug queenpin Griselda Blanco. Griselda is an objectively terrible person who the show can’t help but think is actually really cool and misunderstood. That’s a Dad Show, baby.
Best Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Matt Bomer (Fellow Travelers)
Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer)
Jon Hamm (Fargo)
Tom Hollander (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans)
Andrew Scott (Ripley)
My pick: Andrew Scott. He hollowed out his soul to play this part.
Actual pick: Jon Hamm. Richard Gadd is too off-putting to win. This is going to Hamm (and his pierced nipples) for breaking bad in a politically resonant way.
Dad Show pick: Jon Hamm. There are five men in this category, and only one of them is Don Draper.
Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Nestor Carbonell (Shōgun)
Paul Dano (Mr. and Mrs. Smith)
Tracy Letts (Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty)
Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses)
John Turturro (Mr. and Mrs. Smith)
My pick: Paul Dano. The bait-and-switch with his character on Mr. & Mrs. Smith was really funny.
Actual pick: Jonathan Pryce. He hasn’t won an Emmy yet, so maybe this will be a gimme because he’s due. But this is actually a tough category to predict. Nestor Carbonell would be fun. I would have gone with Ron Perlman for Mr. & Mrs. Smith over Turturro, but they didn’t ask me.
Dad Show pick: Tracy Letts. Playwright/character actor Tracy Letts as a tragic basketball coach. What else do you need to know?
Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Jon Bernthal (The Bear)
Matthew Broderick (Only Murders in the Building)
Ryan Gosling (Saturday Night Live)
Christopher Lloyd (Hacks)
Bob Odenkirk (The Bear)
Will Poulter (The Bear)
My pick: Bob Odenkirk. Anytime Bob Odenkirk is nominated for an award, I have to give it to him. At TV Guide, I once tried to put him on the Best Performances year-end list for the I Think You Should Leave “triples is best” sketch. And I meant it.
Actual pick: Jon Bernthal. It is what it is, and it’s Bernthal.
Dad Show pick: Jon Bernthal. NOT Ryan Gosling, who broke character in every SNL sketch he was in. Extremely unprofessional.
-If you want more on the Emmys from me, or need some help finding where to watch these shows, I wrote an Emmys streaming guide for Gold Derby.
-I reviewed Peacock’s gladiator series Those About to Die for TheWrap. It’s pretty mid, but it has its moments. Here’s an excerpt:
Despite being promoted as the series’ star, Anthony Hopkins’ screen time equals approximately how long it takes to drink a cappuccino in a Roman café — and he’s not exactly giving the full Tony to the scenes he is in. Peacock is doing the “geezer teaser” marketing strategy of hiring a big star for a small role and presenting them as if they’re the main character. Which is fine; Peacock needs people who signed up for the Olympics to stick around and watch “Those About to Die,” and Hopkins is by far the most familiar face in the cast. And the rest of the ensemble is strong enough that Hopkins is not missed when he’s not around. But if you go into “Those About to Die” expecting Hopkins to play a John Dutton or Logan Roy type of character, you will be disappointed.
I know what you might be thinking, and I can confirm that it’s true — Those About to Die is a Dad Show. Read the whole thing here.
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You have to watch Rez Dogs Season 3. Triples is best.